Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.
Author: Javier Moldon
More info in https://github.com/jmoldon/coronavirus_analysis
link to this report: https://jmoldon.github.io/coronavirus_analysis/cvid_report.html
"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard
Sorted by highest number of deaths
| Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered | Active | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country/Region | ||||
| United States | 55396 (+1236) | 986818 (+29313) | 118777 (+2576) | 812645 (+25501) |
| Italy | 26644 (+260) | 197675 (+2324) | 64928 (+1808) | 106103 (+256) |
| Spain | 23190 (+288) | 226629 (+2870) | 117727 (+22019) | 85712 (-19437) |
| France | 22856 (+242) | 162100 (+612) | 44903 (+309) | 94341 (+61) |
| United Kingdom | 20732 (+413) | 152840 (+4463) | 0 (+0) | 132108 (+4050) |
| Belgium | 7094 (+177) | 46134 (+809) | 10785 (+368) | 28255 (+264) |
| Germany | 5976 (+103) | 157770 (+1352) | 112000 (+2200) | 39794 (-951) |
| Iran | 5710 (+60) | 90481 (+1153) | 69657 (+1464) | 15114 (-371) |
| China | 4632 (+0) | 82827 (+11) | 77394 (+48) | 801 (-37) |
| Netherlands | 4475 (+66) | 37845 (+655) | 0 (+0) | 33370 (+589) |
| Brazil | 4268 (+231) | 62787 (+3790) | 30152 (+992) | 28367 (+2567) |
| Turkey | 2805 (+99) | 110130 (+2357) | 29140 (+3558) | 78185 (-1300) |
| Canada | 2560 (+95) | 46895 (+1541) | 17321 (+896) | 27014 (+550) |
| Sweden | 2194 (+2) | 18640 (+463) | 1005 (+0) | 15441 (+461) |
| Switzerland | 1610 (+11) | 29061 (+167) | 21800 (+500) | 5651 (-344) |
| Mexico | 1305 (+84) | 13842 (+970) | 7149 (+0) | 5388 (+886) |
| Ireland | 1087 (+24) | 19262 (+701) | 9233 (+0) | 8942 (+677) |
| Portugal | 903 (+23) | 23864 (+472) | 1329 (+52) | 21632 (+397) |
| India | 882 (+57) | 27890 (+1607) | 6523 (+584) | 20485 (+966) |
| Russia | 747 (+66) | 80949 (+6361) | 6767 (+517) | 73435 (+5778) |
| Indonesia | 743 (+23) | 8882 (+275) | 1107 (+65) | 7032 (+187) |
| Peru | 728 (+28) | 27517 (+2186) | 8088 (+291) | 18701 (+1867) |
| Romania | 619 (+18) | 11036 (+401) | 3054 (+164) | 7363 (+219) |
| Ecuador | 576 (+0) | 22719 (+0) | 1366 (+0) | 20777 (+0) |
| Austria | 542 (+6) | 15225 (+77) | 12282 (+179) | 2401 (-108) |
These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 202251 (+3841) | 2909812 (+77028) | 799266 (+42792) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 202718 ( +3738) | 2823736 ( +41145) | 790448 ( +24864) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 206122 ( +3403) | 2861273 ( +37537) | 813816 ( +23368) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 209209 ( +3087) | 2895423 ( +34150) | 835657 ( +21841) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 212000 ( +2791) | 2926412 ( +30989) | 855968 ( +20311) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 214516 ( +2516) | 2954467 ( +28055) | 874765 ( +18798) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 4632 (+0) | 82827 (+11) | 77394 (+48) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 3647 ( +0) | 81494 ( +0) | 76784 ( +4) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 3648 ( +0) | 81494 ( +0) | 76787 ( +3) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 3648 ( +0) | 81494 ( +0) | 76790 ( +3) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 3648 ( +0) | 81494 ( +0) | 76793 ( +3) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 3648 ( +0) | 81494 ( +0) | 76795 ( +2) |
All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.
Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 23190 (+288) | 226629 (+2870) | 117727 (+22019) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 22156 ( +91) | 213082 ( +939) | 96824 ( +1058) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 22234 ( +78) | 213901 ( +819) | 97753 ( +929) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 22300 ( +66) | 214615 ( +713) | 98565 ( +813) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 22357 ( +57) | 215235 ( +621) | 99275 ( +710) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 22406 ( +49) | 215775 ( +540) | 99894 ( +618) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 26644 (+260) | 197675 (+2324) | 64928 (+1808) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 25576 ( +137) | 188885 ( +813) | 65085 ( +1897) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 25698 ( +122) | 189613 ( +727) | 66914 ( +1829) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 25806 ( +108) | 190262 ( +650) | 68671 ( +1758) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 25903 ( +96) | 190842 ( +580) | 70354 ( +1683) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 25988 ( +85) | 191360 ( +517) | 71960 ( +1606) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 20732 (+413) | 152840 (+4463) | 0 (+0) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 20333 ( +301) | 150582 ( +2533) | 85 ( +1) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 20593 ( +261) | 152854 ( +2272) | 86 ( +1) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 20818 ( +225) | 154884 ( +2030) | 87 ( +1) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 21011 ( +193) | 156693 ( +1808) | 87 ( +1) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 21177 ( +166) | 158299 ( +1606) | 88 ( +1) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 55396 (+1236) | 986818 (+29313) | 118777 (+2576) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 56445 ( +1359) | 948540 ( +13662) | 120650 ( +6353) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 57649 ( +1204) | 960738 ( +12198) | 126805 ( +6156) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 58710 ( +1061) | 971594 ( +10855) | 132719 ( +5914) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 59639 ( +929) | 981226 ( +9632) | 138355 ( +5635) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 60449 ( +810) | 989751 ( +8525) | 143683 ( +5328) |
I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 22856 (+242) | 162100 (+612) | 44903 (+309) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 22567 ( +177) | 162256 ( +498) | 56422 ( +3402) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 22718 ( +151) | 162674 ( +418) | 60042 ( +3620) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 22846 ( +128) | 163025 ( +351) | 63895 ( +3853) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 22955 ( +109) | 163319 ( +294) | 67994 ( +4100) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 23047 ( +92) | 163566 ( +246) | 72357 ( +4363) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 5976 (+103) | 157770 (+1352) | 112000 (+2200) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 5966 ( +100) | 152225 ( +441) | 110091 ( +1501) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 6055 ( +89) | 152605 ( +379) | 111398 ( +1307) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 6134 ( +78) | 152930 ( +326) | 112533 ( +1135) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 6202 ( +69) | 153210 ( +279) | 113515 ( +982) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 6263 ( +60) | 153449 ( +240) | 114362 ( +847) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 4475 (+66) | 37845 (+655) | 0 (+0) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 4346 ( +46) | 37167 ( +384) | 198 ( +0) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 4386 ( +41) | 37513 ( +346) | 198 ( +0) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 4422 ( +36) | 37824 ( +311) | 198 ( +0) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 4454 ( +31) | 38103 ( +279) | 198 ( +0) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 4481 ( +27) | 38352 ( +249) | 198 ( +0) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 7094 (+177) | 46134 (+809) | 10785 (+368) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 7002 ( +95) | 45138 ( +508) | 10337 ( +117) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 7083 ( +81) | 45592 ( +454) | 10439 ( +102) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 7152 ( +69) | 45997 ( +405) | 10528 ( +89) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 7211 ( +59) | 46357 ( +360) | 10605 ( +77) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 7260 ( +50) | 46676 ( +320) | 10671 ( +67) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 2194 (+2) | 18640 (+463) | 1005 (+0) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 2289 ( +67) | 18527 ( +408) | 861 ( +35) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 2351 ( +61) | 18911 ( +384) | 894 ( +34) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 2406 ( +56) | 19272 ( +360) | 927 ( +32) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 2457 ( +50) | 19608 ( +337) | 957 ( +31) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 2502 ( +45) | 19922 ( +314) | 986 ( +29) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 535 (+11) | 11617 (+344) | 2265 (+139) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 529 ( +14) | 11360 ( +179) | 2485 ( +198) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 542 ( +13) | 11522 ( +162) | 2683 ( +198) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 554 ( +11) | 11668 ( +146) | 2879 ( +196) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 564 ( +10) | 11799 ( +131) | 3070 ( +191) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 573 ( +9) | 11916 ( +117) | 3254 ( +184) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 1610 (+11) | 29061 (+167) | 21800 (+500) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 1582 ( +12) | 28168 ( +43) | 21137 ( +183) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 1592 ( +10) | 28204 ( +36) | 21292 ( +155) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 1601 ( +9) | 28235 ( +31) | 21422 ( +130) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 1608 ( +8) | 28262 ( +26) | 21532 ( +110) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 1615 ( +7) | 28284 ( +22) | 21624 ( +92) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26 April 2020 | 5710 (+60) | 90481 (+1153) | 69657 (+1464) |
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 27 April 2020 | 5512 ( +30) | 89284 ( +563) | 71580 ( +1355) |
| Tue 28 April 2020 | 5539 ( +27) | 89794 ( +510) | 72828 ( +1249) |
| Wed 29 April 2020 | 5563 ( +24) | 90256 ( +461) | 73975 ( +1147) |
| Thu 30 April 2020 | 5585 ( +22) | 90672 ( +417) | 75024 ( +1049) |
| Fri 01 May 2020 | 5605 ( +20) | 91048 ( +376) | 75982 ( +958) |
Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.
South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.