Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Monday 27 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 55396 (+1236) 986818 (+29313) 118777 (+2576) 812645 (+25501)
Italy 26644 (+260) 197675 (+2324) 64928 (+1808) 106103 (+256)
Spain 23190 (+288) 226629 (+2870) 117727 (+22019) 85712 (-19437)
France 22856 (+242) 162100 (+612) 44903 (+309) 94341 (+61)
United Kingdom 20732 (+413) 152840 (+4463) 0 (+0) 132108 (+4050)
Belgium 7094 (+177) 46134 (+809) 10785 (+368) 28255 (+264)
Germany 5976 (+103) 157770 (+1352) 112000 (+2200) 39794 (-951)
Iran 5710 (+60) 90481 (+1153) 69657 (+1464) 15114 (-371)
China 4632 (+0) 82827 (+11) 77394 (+48) 801 (-37)
Netherlands 4475 (+66) 37845 (+655) 0 (+0) 33370 (+589)
Brazil 4268 (+231) 62787 (+3790) 30152 (+992) 28367 (+2567)
Turkey 2805 (+99) 110130 (+2357) 29140 (+3558) 78185 (-1300)
Canada 2560 (+95) 46895 (+1541) 17321 (+896) 27014 (+550)
Sweden 2194 (+2) 18640 (+463) 1005 (+0) 15441 (+461)
Switzerland 1610 (+11) 29061 (+167) 21800 (+500) 5651 (-344)
Mexico 1305 (+84) 13842 (+970) 7149 (+0) 5388 (+886)
Ireland 1087 (+24) 19262 (+701) 9233 (+0) 8942 (+677)
Portugal 903 (+23) 23864 (+472) 1329 (+52) 21632 (+397)
India 882 (+57) 27890 (+1607) 6523 (+584) 20485 (+966)
Russia 747 (+66) 80949 (+6361) 6767 (+517) 73435 (+5778)
Indonesia 743 (+23) 8882 (+275) 1107 (+65) 7032 (+187)
Peru 728 (+28) 27517 (+2186) 8088 (+291) 18701 (+1867)
Romania 619 (+18) 11036 (+401) 3054 (+164) 7363 (+219)
Ecuador 576 (+0) 22719 (+0) 1366 (+0) 20777 (+0)
Austria 542 (+6) 15225 (+77) 12282 (+179) 2401 (-108)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 202251 (+3841) 2909812 (+77028) 799266 (+42792)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 202718 ( +3738) 2823736 ( +41145) 790448 ( +24864)
Tue 28 April 2020 206122 ( +3403) 2861273 ( +37537) 813816 ( +23368)
Wed 29 April 2020 209209 ( +3087) 2895423 ( +34150) 835657 ( +21841)
Thu 30 April 2020 212000 ( +2791) 2926412 ( +30989) 855968 ( +20311)
Fri 01 May 2020 214516 ( +2516) 2954467 ( +28055) 874765 ( +18798)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82827 (+11) 77394 (+48)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 3647 ( +0) 81494 ( +0) 76784 ( +4)
Tue 28 April 2020 3648 ( +0) 81494 ( +0) 76787 ( +3)
Wed 29 April 2020 3648 ( +0) 81494 ( +0) 76790 ( +3)
Thu 30 April 2020 3648 ( +0) 81494 ( +0) 76793 ( +3)
Fri 01 May 2020 3648 ( +0) 81494 ( +0) 76795 ( +2)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 23190 (+288) 226629 (+2870) 117727 (+22019)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 22156 ( +91) 213082 ( +939) 96824 ( +1058)
Tue 28 April 2020 22234 ( +78) 213901 ( +819) 97753 ( +929)
Wed 29 April 2020 22300 ( +66) 214615 ( +713) 98565 ( +813)
Thu 30 April 2020 22357 ( +57) 215235 ( +621) 99275 ( +710)
Fri 01 May 2020 22406 ( +49) 215775 ( +540) 99894 ( +618)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 26644 (+260) 197675 (+2324) 64928 (+1808)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 25576 ( +137) 188885 ( +813) 65085 ( +1897)
Tue 28 April 2020 25698 ( +122) 189613 ( +727) 66914 ( +1829)
Wed 29 April 2020 25806 ( +108) 190262 ( +650) 68671 ( +1758)
Thu 30 April 2020 25903 ( +96) 190842 ( +580) 70354 ( +1683)
Fri 01 May 2020 25988 ( +85) 191360 ( +517) 71960 ( +1606)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 20732 (+413) 152840 (+4463) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 20333 ( +301) 150582 ( +2533) 85 ( +1)
Tue 28 April 2020 20593 ( +261) 152854 ( +2272) 86 ( +1)
Wed 29 April 2020 20818 ( +225) 154884 ( +2030) 87 ( +1)
Thu 30 April 2020 21011 ( +193) 156693 ( +1808) 87 ( +1)
Fri 01 May 2020 21177 ( +166) 158299 ( +1606) 88 ( +1)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 55396 (+1236) 986818 (+29313) 118777 (+2576)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 56445 ( +1359) 948540 ( +13662) 120650 ( +6353)
Tue 28 April 2020 57649 ( +1204) 960738 ( +12198) 126805 ( +6156)
Wed 29 April 2020 58710 ( +1061) 971594 ( +10855) 132719 ( +5914)
Thu 30 April 2020 59639 ( +929) 981226 ( +9632) 138355 ( +5635)
Fri 01 May 2020 60449 ( +810) 989751 ( +8525) 143683 ( +5328)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 22856 (+242) 162100 (+612) 44903 (+309)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 22567 ( +177) 162256 ( +498) 56422 ( +3402)
Tue 28 April 2020 22718 ( +151) 162674 ( +418) 60042 ( +3620)
Wed 29 April 2020 22846 ( +128) 163025 ( +351) 63895 ( +3853)
Thu 30 April 2020 22955 ( +109) 163319 ( +294) 67994 ( +4100)
Fri 01 May 2020 23047 ( +92) 163566 ( +246) 72357 ( +4363)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 5976 (+103) 157770 (+1352) 112000 (+2200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 5966 ( +100) 152225 ( +441) 110091 ( +1501)
Tue 28 April 2020 6055 ( +89) 152605 ( +379) 111398 ( +1307)
Wed 29 April 2020 6134 ( +78) 152930 ( +326) 112533 ( +1135)
Thu 30 April 2020 6202 ( +69) 153210 ( +279) 113515 ( +982)
Fri 01 May 2020 6263 ( +60) 153449 ( +240) 114362 ( +847)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 4475 (+66) 37845 (+655) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 4346 ( +46) 37167 ( +384) 198 ( +0)
Tue 28 April 2020 4386 ( +41) 37513 ( +346) 198 ( +0)
Wed 29 April 2020 4422 ( +36) 37824 ( +311) 198 ( +0)
Thu 30 April 2020 4454 ( +31) 38103 ( +279) 198 ( +0)
Fri 01 May 2020 4481 ( +27) 38352 ( +249) 198 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 7094 (+177) 46134 (+809) 10785 (+368)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 7002 ( +95) 45138 ( +508) 10337 ( +117)
Tue 28 April 2020 7083 ( +81) 45592 ( +454) 10439 ( +102)
Wed 29 April 2020 7152 ( +69) 45997 ( +405) 10528 ( +89)
Thu 30 April 2020 7211 ( +59) 46357 ( +360) 10605 ( +77)
Fri 01 May 2020 7260 ( +50) 46676 ( +320) 10671 ( +67)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 2194 (+2) 18640 (+463) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 2289 ( +67) 18527 ( +408) 861 ( +35)
Tue 28 April 2020 2351 ( +61) 18911 ( +384) 894 ( +34)
Wed 29 April 2020 2406 ( +56) 19272 ( +360) 927 ( +32)
Thu 30 April 2020 2457 ( +50) 19608 ( +337) 957 ( +31)
Fri 01 May 2020 2502 ( +45) 19922 ( +314) 986 ( +29)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 535 (+11) 11617 (+344) 2265 (+139)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 529 ( +14) 11360 ( +179) 2485 ( +198)
Tue 28 April 2020 542 ( +13) 11522 ( +162) 2683 ( +198)
Wed 29 April 2020 554 ( +11) 11668 ( +146) 2879 ( +196)
Thu 30 April 2020 564 ( +10) 11799 ( +131) 3070 ( +191)
Fri 01 May 2020 573 ( +9) 11916 ( +117) 3254 ( +184)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 1610 (+11) 29061 (+167) 21800 (+500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 1582 ( +12) 28168 ( +43) 21137 ( +183)
Tue 28 April 2020 1592 ( +10) 28204 ( +36) 21292 ( +155)
Wed 29 April 2020 1601 ( +9) 28235 ( +31) 21422 ( +130)
Thu 30 April 2020 1608 ( +8) 28262 ( +26) 21532 ( +110)
Fri 01 May 2020 1615 ( +7) 28284 ( +22) 21624 ( +92)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 26 April 2020 5710 (+60) 90481 (+1153) 69657 (+1464)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 27 April 2020 5512 ( +30) 89284 ( +563) 71580 ( +1355)
Tue 28 April 2020 5539 ( +27) 89794 ( +510) 72828 ( +1249)
Wed 29 April 2020 5563 ( +24) 90256 ( +461) 73975 ( +1147)
Thu 30 April 2020 5585 ( +22) 90672 ( +417) 75024 ( +1049)
Fri 01 May 2020 5605 ( +20) 91048 ( +376) 75982 ( +958)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.